The national two-party preferred Coalition vote is probably artificially high and this should be noted as both parties cite this vote as justification for their claim to form government.
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Elections encourage an outbreak of ‘poll fetishism’ every poll or hint of one is racked over obsessively. But polls are not a magic time tunnel to the future but a summation of frequently unclear voter responses that reflect views held with varying degrees of intensity. Too often poll watchers fail to see the forest for [...] Election campaigns attract fascinated attention. In fact I doubt the election campaign will make much difference either way, before it started the likely outcome was a narrow Labor victory. The evidence is that American presidential election campaigns made little difference as Brendan Nyhan noted just after Obama’s victory: Discussing the National Party tomorrow morning on ABC Ballarat, some thoughts (which build on my predictions before the last election): For decades political observers have chronicled the decline of the National Party, and predicted the party’s final demise, in particular some have argued that the dismantling of agricultural market regulation would be fatal to the Nationals. [...] Just go on the record. Some may call this a history-making campign, but I expect that this will be a campaign that will inspire low levels of interest and enthusiasm compared to 2007, Julia Gillard notwithstanding (see my recent article here and my earlier one here) Tony Abbott has done exceptionally well so far, he [...] The curious fact about the recent population controversy is the absence of any historical context. Since the early 1970s immigration has been a theme of conservative campaigns in Australia, before then it was Labor that wrapped itself in the banner of White Australia. The conservative critique of immigration came direct from Britain where the Conservatives [...] Stephanie Peatling has a fairly lazy article arguing that Tony Abbott has no particular problem with women voters based on a simple bivariate analysis, rather than the multivariate approach that is required to answer this question. In recent decades Labor has for many women ceased to be the party of masculine class aggressiveness and instead [...] How are we to understand Labor’s loss of ground on environmental policy manifest in declining public support for its Emmissions Trading Scheme. Public opinion about environmental questions is complex. There is a broad sentiment in favour of wilderness preservation, contrary to some myths it doesn’t vary much by social background or educational level. This diffuse [...] |
   
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Copyright © 2010 Geoff Robinson - All Rights Reserved |
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