There are some signs of improving prospects for the Democrats in November. At least one poll now has then ahead in the generic ballot and the Real Clear Politics poll average has almost a dead heat. In this context Pennsylvania-12 takes on added significance.
Not my musical tastes but relevant to the Democrats’ current electoral woes… Have the Democrat’s prospects in the upcoming mid-term elections improved? They remain dire. The upcoming special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii are likely to be lost by the Democrats. The Pennsylvania special election is in the 12th district in the former steel-making and […]
Has Obama’s presidency been a wasted opportunity for American liberalism? Was there ever a prospect of establishing a permanent Democratic majority? Via Mathew Yglesias an interesting analysis from an American dating site using membership data to track the relation between ideological identification and partisan allegiance.
Health care reform euphoria notwithstanding the Democrats are in serious political trouble because of public opinion results such as this:
The strong performance by the Liberals in the South Australian election campaign has surprised many and driven Labor to resort to a highly negative campaign as shown. One clear pattern in recent Australian politics has been the recasting of the national Liberals as a strongly conservative party. Malcolm Turnbull’s downfall was evidence of this.
More evidence of the rightward drift of American public opinion on economic issues apparent in distrust of unions from Pew Research Center: Favorable views of labor unions have plummeted since 2007, amid growing public skepticism about unions’ purpose and power. Currently, 41% say they have a favorable opinion of labor unions while about as many […]
Noteworthy that in the last few weeks liberal commentators, such as Mathew Yglesias and Jonathon Chait, have begun to seriously contemplate the possibility, even the likelihood of the Republicans securing a House of Representatives majority this year. Some of this commentary has been in response to the recent analysis of Harry Joe who has argued […]
It is true that the Massachusetts debacle exaggerates the Democrats woes, just as NY-23 obscured them. But Barack Obama might remember the example of the Scullin government. Jim Scullin who led Australian Labor to a landslide victory in 1929 was a nice guy (who shocked senior bureaucrats by asking them to call him ‘Jim’), and […]
Erza Klein argues that polls show support for health care reform rising (and this at a time when the current bill has attracted substantial opposition from the left). As I have argued before perhaps Australia may provide a guide, the single-payer systems of Medibank and Medicare implemented by Labor governments in 1975 and 1984 (a […]
Some worrying early signs for the Democrats this year. Polls have shown tightening of the race for the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to elect a replacement for Ted Kennedy. A Democratic loss in this reliably blue state would be a huge fillip to Republican morale. The tightening race in large part reflects the […]