Regional variations & personal votes at the 2010 Victorian election

With the Victorian election almost upon us there are many guides to individual seats available. To add to these I have developed a simple regression model to predict the 2010 Labor primary and two-party preferred votes and the 2010 Green vote in each electorate from the social composition of the electorate as revealed by the […]

Capitalism and machine politics in Geelong

Celebrity photographer and nightclub owner Darren Lyons is en route for the a victory in the Geelong Mayoral by-election with about 30%, ahead of his nearest rival Stephanie Asher with 12%. It is a compulsory preferential ballot but with 16 candidates it would be extremely unlikely for Lyons to lose from here. The City of […]

Victorian Labor and rural electoral myths

Is Victorian Labor in trouble in rural areas? This theme is getting some coverage in the media. However much of the coverage tells us very little. The Age interviewed Mallee farmers, the problem is that they have always been very conservative. Year in year out the small rural polling booths in the Mallee record primary […]