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The election for Americans

Wrote below for US site The Monkey Cage:

Would bank nationalization have made a difference?

In November Americans will vote in Congressional elections that will probably deliver a major rebuff to the Democrats. Is there any way the Democrats could have prevented this outcome? From an Australian viewpoint the American discussion of Congressional elections is curious as relatively little attention is given to overall voting intention, it is true that [...]

Capitalist confidence and electability from Lang to Rudd and Obama

The recent debate about the Resources Super Profits Tax revives an old argument about whether or not capitalists have a veto power over governments due to the alleged linkage between business investment, economic activity and the likelihood of re-election. Critics of capitalism once favoured this argument (and conservatives opposed it) but now with the demise [...]

Julia Gillard feels your pain?

Does political leadership make a difference? The rise of Julia Gillard and the downfall of Kevin Rudd remind me of the ongoing American debate. Here a variety of critics from left and right have argued that Barack Obama’s declining approval rating (and the closely related prospects of the Democrats in the upcoming Congressional elections) is [...]

Labor goes back to 1997?

In many respects modern Labor has returned to the type of inward musing that it engaged in after 1996. Then there was an assortment of vaguely defined rhetoric about the party’s perceived excessive social liberalism, these critics however were very vague as to exactly what alternative policies they proposed, instead they preferred to focus on [...]

Signs of hope for Congressional Democrats?

There are some signs of improving prospects for the Democrats in November. At least one poll now has then ahead in the generic ballot and the Real Clear Politics poll average has almost a dead heat. In this context Pennsylvania-12 takes on added significance.

Obama goes to Allentown

Not my musical tastes but relevant to the Democrats’ current electoral woes… Have the Democrat’s prospects in the upcoming mid-term elections improved? They remain dire. The upcoming special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii are likely to be lost by the Democrats. The Pennsylvania special election is in the 12th district in the former steel-making and [...]

Obama’s lost opportunity?

Has Obama’s presidency been a wasted opportunity for American liberalism? Was there ever a prospect of establishing a permanent Democratic majority? Via Mathew Yglesias an interesting analysis from an American dating site using membership data to track the relation between ideological identification and partisan allegiance.

1934 and 2010 compared

 

David Greenberg was one of Hillary Clinton’s academic defenders, and he did a more effective job of this than Sean Wilentz. He has an insightful article on Obama’s first year:

One year in, Obama’s approval ratings have slipped, and they’re likely to get worse. He’ll probably muddle through seven more years of partisan acrimony, small-bore achievements, [...]

Medicare and Barack Obama

Erza Klein argues that polls show support for health care reform rising (and this at a time when the current bill has attracted substantial opposition from the left). As I have argued before perhaps Australia may provide a guide, the single-payer systems of Medibank and Medicare implemented by Labor governments in 1975 and 1984 (a [...]