The war of the states?

The divergent patterns of swing across the states at the 2010 election attracted much comment. How variable was the swing? 2010 showed the highest level of variability in the Labor vote across the states since 1949 at least and perhaps the highest since 1931.  I have developed a measure of the variance in the 2PP Labor vote across the states since 1949 (I have excluded territories because their votes were not included until the 1960s). My measure is based on the average of the 2PP labor vote across the states divided by the Standard Deviation. I have then taken this figure for each election and converted it to an index of variability:  the percentage of the average of this figure across 1949-2010. The result is below. Noteworthy that variance increased during the Howard years, what does this mean? A quick review of pre-1949 figures suggests that the 2010 election may have been the most state divergent outcome since 1931.

1949 86
1951 90
1954 81
1955 101
1958 132
1961 142
1963 132
1966 140
1969 98
1972 111
1974 98
1975 76
1977 95
1980 49
1983 108
1984 70
1987 46
1990 50
1993 93
1996 127
1998 102
2001 120
2004 107
2007 82
2010 164

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>