Polls reconsidered

I was very critical of the JWS marginals poll. However it performed better than I predicted, the R-Sq between their predictions and the outcome (using the ABC figures from the close of election night) was 0.58. However it predicted five ALP victories wrongly and 3 Liberal victories wrongly. However the average Labor across all the electorates surveyed was almost equal to the average vote on Saturday. From the 2007 to 2010 election the R-Sq for the seats surveyed was 0.39. As for my overall predictions Labor came in on about the 2PP I thought likely but did worse in Qld than I expected and slightly better in NSW.

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